RMJ 231 October 9
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 9 ● Houston
I met with Drayton, Bob McLaren, Gerry, and Tal today. We talked about next year’s budget, which will be roughly the same as last year’s.
It is likely that we will not be able to retain D.K. We may have to let Derek, Shane, or Sean go too. The plight of the middle-market team is what Gerry calls the “no-man’s-land budget.” If allows you enough money to have a few stars, but not enough to guarantee a winning season.
Bob feels that we can generate $70 million next year: $8 million more than we made this year. If we achieve this goal, and we keep the reins on the payroll, we will only lose $3-4 million instead of $10-11 million.
On first blush, it seems that we will have trouble fielding a winning team next year. But Tal brought up a statistical anomaly that may give us a chance to “get better while getting worse.” Here’s the theory:
We scored 117 runs more than we allowed this year. Using the proven run-differential theory, this would predict a record of 91-71 instead of our actual finish of 84-78. This theory is applicable over time, but there are exceptions each year. In 1997, only eight of the 28 teams finished with five wins more or less than their run-differential would predict.
Theoretically, we would win 90 games with the same team next year. If we stray as far on the plus side in 1998 as we did on the minus side this year, we will win 100 games.
I don’t subscribe to this theory, because I know that a single player cannot repeat a performance from one year to the next — and it is less likely that a whole team will do it.
I would gladly take a differential of plus-117 runs next year, but I don’t think we can achieve it with the same players.
Still, there is some comfort in these statistics; they clearly suggest that we were a better team than anyone realized. Only the Braves, the Yankees, and the Orioles had greater run differentials, and those three teams won 295 games among them.
Can we sustain the loss of Darryl Kile to the free-agent raiders? Possibly. But it will take a lot of work this winter to adjust for losing his 255 innings of airtight pitching.
We can do it with more hitting, better fielding, or by further developing the pitching staff. But it is not going to be easy.
If I am going to last until we move into the new stadium in the year 2000, I am going to have to pull a few rabbits out of my hat.
| Name | Age | B | T | Ht | Wt | DoB | Yrs | G | GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Abreu | 23 | L | R | 6′ 0″ | 220 | Mar 11, 1974 | 2 | 59 | 46 |
| Brad Ausmus | 28 | R | R | 5′ 11″ | 190 | Apr 14, 1969 | 5 | 130 | 113 |
| Jeff Bagwell HOF | 29 | R | R | 6′ 0″ | 195 | May 27, 1968 | 7 | 162 | 157 |
| Manuel Barrios | 22 | R | R | 6′ 0″ | 170 | Sep 21, 1974 | 1st | 2 | 0 |
| Derek Bell | 28 | R | R | 6′ 2″ | 200 | Dec 11, 1968 | 7 | 129 | 122 |
| Sean Berry | 31 | R | R | 5′ 11″ | 200 | Mar 22, 1966 | 8 | 96 | 82 |
| Craig Biggio HOF | 31 | R | R | 5′ 11″ | 185 | Dec 14, 1965 | 10 | 162 | 156 |
| Tim Bogar | 30 | R | R | 6′ 2″ | 198 | Oct 28, 1966 | 5 | 97 | 74 |
| Jose Cabrera | 25 | R | R | 6′ 0″ | 205 | Mar 24, 1972 | 1st | 12 | 0 |
| Chuck Carr | 29 | B | R | 5′ 10″ | 155 | Aug 10, 1967 | 8 | 63 | 49 |
| Tony Eusebio | 30 | R | R | 6′ 2″ | 180 | Apr 27, 1967 | 5 | 60 | 42 |
| Sid Fernandez | 34 | L | L | 6′ 1″ | 220 | Oct 12, 1962 | 15 | 1 | 1 |
| Ramon Garcia | 28 | R | R | 6′ 2″ | 200 | Feb 9, 1969 | 3 | 42 | 20 |
| Luis Gonzalez | 29 | L | R | 6′ 2″ | 180 | Sep 3, 1967 | 8 | 152 | 143 |
| Tommy Greene | 30 | R | R | 6′ 5″ | 225 | Apr 6, 1967 | 8 | 2 | 2 |
| Ricky Gutierrez | 27 | R | R | 6′ 1″ | 175 | May 23, 1970 | 5 | 102 | 72 |
| Mike Hampton | 24 | R | L | 5′ 10″ | 185 | Sep 9, 1972 | 5 | 34 | 34 |
| Oscar Henriquez | 23 | R | R | 6′ 6″ | 220 | Jan 28, 1974 | 1st | 4 | 0 |
| Richard Hidalgo | 22 | R | R | 6′ 3″ | 220 | Jun 28, 1975 | 1st | 19 | 14 |
| Chris Holt | 25 | R | R | 6′ 4″ | 205 | Sep 18, 1971 | 2 | 33 | 32 |
| Thomas Howard | 32 | B | R | 6′ 2″ | 200 | Dec 11, 1964 | 8 | 107 | 54 |
| John Hudek | 30 | B | R | 6′ 1″ | 200 | Aug 8, 1966 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Russ Johnson | 24 | R | R | 5′ 10″ | 185 | Feb 22, 1973 | 1st | 21 | 13 |
| Darryl Kile | 28 | R | R | 6′ 5″ | 185 | Dec 2, 1968 | 7 | 34 | 34 |
| Randy Knorr | 28 | R | R | 6′ 2″ | 205 | Nov 12, 1968 | 7 | 4 | 1 |
| Jose Lima | 24 | R | R | 6′ 2″ | 170 | Sep 30, 1972 | 4 | 52 | 1 |
| Pat Listach | 29 | B | R | 5′ 9″ | 170 | Sep 12, 1967 | 6 | 52 | 33 |
| Mike Magnante | 32 | L | L | 6′ 1″ | 180 | Jun 17, 1965 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Tom Martin | 27 | L | L | 6′ 1″ | 200 | May 21, 1970 | 1st | 55 | 0 |
| Blas Minor | 31 | R | R | 6′ 3″ | 195 | Mar 20, 1966 | 6 | 11 | 0 |
| Ray Montgomery | 27 | R | R | 6′ 3″ | 195 | Aug 8, 1969 | 2 | 29 | 14 |
| James Mouton | 28 | R | R | 5′ 9″ | 175 | Dec 29, 1968 | 4 | 86 | 40 |
| Tony Pena | 40 | R | R | 6′ 0″ | 175 | Jun 4, 1957 | 18 | 9 | 6 |
| J.R. Phillips | 27 | L | L | 6′ 2″ | 205 | Apr 29, 1970 | 5 | 13 | 2 |
| Ken Ramos | 30 | L | L | 6′ 1″ | 185 | Jun 6, 1967 | 1st | 14 | 0 |
| Shane Reynolds | 29 | R | R | 6′ 3″ | 210 | Mar 26, 1968 | 6 | 30 | 30 |
| Luis Rivera | 33 | R | R | 5′ 9″ | 165 | Jan 3, 1964 | 10 | 7 | 2 |
| Bill Spiers | 31 | L | R | 6′ 2″ | 190 | Jun 5, 1966 | 9 | 132 | 67 |
| Russ Springer | 28 | R | R | 6′ 4″ | 195 | Nov 7, 1968 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Billy Wagner | 25 | L | L | 5′ 10″ | 180 | Jul 25, 1971 | 3 | 62 | 0 |
| Donne Wall | 29 | R | R | 6′ 1″ | 180 | Jul 11, 1967 | 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Name | Age | B | T | Ht | Wt | DoB | Yrs | G | GS |








dashed any playoff hopes the Astros had.
every player was looking down — as if they were at a funeral. That’s when I blurted out a suggestion that the team needed more Hawaiian shirts. The idea was to loosen up, and have a good time. A few fans brought me shirts when we got back to the Astrodome. We used that shtick quite a bit in the ugly games — and there were a lot of them. 
