RMJ 231 October 9

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 9 ● Houston

I met with Drayton, Bob McLaren, Gerry, and Tal today. We talked about next year’s budget, which will be roughly the same as last year’s.

It is likely that we will not be able to retain D.K.  We may have to let Derek, Shane, or Sean go too.  The plight of the middle-market team is what Gerry calls the “no-man’s-land budget.” If allows you enough money to have a few stars, but not enough to guarantee a winning season.

Bob feels that we can generate $70 million next year: $8 million more than we made this year. If we achieve this goal, and we keep the reins on the payroll, we will only lose $3-4 million instead of $10-11 million.

On first blush, it seems that we will have trouble fielding a winning team next year. But Tal brought up a statistical anomaly that may give us a chance to “get better while getting worse.” Here’s the theory:

We scored 117 runs more than we allowed this year. Using the proven run-differential theory, this would predict a record of 91-71 instead of our actual finish of 84-78. This theory is applicable over time, but there are exceptions each year. In 1997, only eight of the 28 teams finished with five wins more or less than their run-differential would predict.

Theoretically, we would win 90 games with the same team next year. If we stray as far on the plus side in 1998 as we did on the minus side this year, we will win 100 games.

I don’t subscribe to this theory, because I know that a single player cannot repeat a performance from one year to the next — and it is less likely that a whole team will do it.

I would gladly take a differential of plus-117 runs next year, but I don’t think we can achieve it with the same players.

Still, there is some comfort in these statistics; they clearly suggest that we were a better team than anyone realized. Only the Braves, the Yankees, and the Orioles had greater run differentials, and those three teams won 295 games among them.

Can we sustain the loss of Darryl Kile to the free-agent raiders? Possibly. But it will take a lot of work this winter to adjust for losing his 255 innings of airtight pitching.

We can do it with more hitting, better fielding, or by further developing the pitching staff. But it is not going to be easy.

 

If I am going to last until we move into the new stadium in the year 2000, I am going to have to pull a few rabbits out of my hat.